Skew tilts to ETH upside while vol stays cheap on BTC
Funding sits balanced across the board, with BTC, ETH and SOL all showing the two venues in line. The tension is subtle today: options are paying up for ETH movement while BTC options price calmer than the tape actually delivered.
Positioning & volatility
| Asset | Funding (blended) | 25Δ skew | Implied / realized vol | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | +8% (HL +9 / OKX +6) | +0.1 | 33.5 / 33.7 | $2.88B |
| ETH | +6% (HL +6 / OKX +5) | +2.9 | 51.3 / 50.3 | $2.35B |
| SOL | +1% (HL +2 / OKX -0) | n/a | n/a / 54.1 | $0.53B |
Funding annualized; negative means shorts pay longs. 25Δ risk reversal in vol points; negative means downside hedged. Snapshots, not positions.
The crowd is not leaning hard anywhere. BTC funding blends to +7.6% with Hyperliquid and OKX close together, ETH to +5.6% with the same agreement, and SOL barely off zero at +0.8%. Where the read lives is in options. BTC's 25d skew is flat at +0.1 and its implied vol of 33.5 sits just below realized 33.7, so vol is cheap there, options underpricing what the market has already moved. ETH is the mirror: skew at +2.9 has calls bid, and implied at 51.3 runs above realized 50.3, so vol is rich, the market paying for movement it has not yet seen. Same balanced funding, opposite vol stance.
What the prediction markets believe
Kalshi puts BTC reaching $82,000 at 1% against a fair value of 0%, a half-point gap that is noise rather than a signal.
On-chain vs Wall Street
The on-chain open is priced richer than usual across every name, led by CRCL at +223bp, which is 99bp above its normal +123bp baseline. HOOD and COIN follow with deviations of +76bp and +63bp, while GOOGL and TSLA sit closest to their own baselines and have barely moved.
| Stock | Last close | Token vs last close |
|---|---|---|
| CRCL | $81 | +223 bp |
| HOOD | $104 | +193 bp |
| COIN | $164 | +216 bp |
| NVDA | $214 | +159 bp |
| GOOGL | $343 | +132 bp |
| TSLA | $358 | +124 bp |
Tokenized equities trade around the clock; gaps are vs the last regular-session close, a read on where the on-chain market prices the open.
Bottom line
Watch whether ETH's rich vol and call-heavy skew get validated by an actual move, or whether the premium bleeds back toward BTC's cheaper reading. Funding staying balanced would keep this a pure options story into the open.