Puts bid across majors while funding stays balanced everywhere
Bitcoin sits near $59,880 with funding reading balanced, but the options tape tells a different story. Skew is negative across BTC, ETH and SOL, and implied vol is trading under realized in both majors. The crowd is not leaning, the hedgers are.
Positioning & volatility
| Asset | Funding (blended) | 25Δ skew | Implied / realized vol | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | +3% (HL +1 / OKX +6) | -8.5 | 45.8 / 52.2 | $2.05B |
| ETH | +5% (HL +8 / OKX +3) | -6.6 | 59.1 / 66.4 | $1.13B |
| SOL | +2% (HL +8 / OKX -4) | n/a | n/a / 79.5 | $0.39B |
Funding annualized; negative means shorts pay longs. 25Δ risk reversal in vol points; negative means downside hedged. Snapshots, not positions.
Perp positioning is quiet. All three majors carry a balanced funding flag, so neither side is paying to hold. The interesting read sits in options: BTC 25-delta skew at -8.5 and ETH at -6.6 both lean toward downside protection, and that puts a floor under demand for puts even as no one is crowded on the perp books. Both BTC and ETH show implied vol below realized, 45.8 against 52.2 on Bitcoin and 59.1 against 66.4 on Ether, meaning recent movement has outrun what the options are pricing forward. SOL has no skew or IV print, just realized vol near 79.5 and the thinnest open interest of the three.
What the prediction markets believe
Kalshi prices the BTC-above-$56,000 question at 100%, essentially flat to fair at -0.5pp, so the prediction market sees no live tail there.
Bottom line
Watch whether the put bid in BTC and ETH skew fades as Asia trades or hardens into the U.S. session. With implied vol sitting under realized, any sharp move gets cheaply hedged. Funding being balanced means there is no crowded leg to unwind, so direction will come from spot, not from a squeeze.