Puts bid across BTC and ETH while SOL longs pay up
The whole crypto complex is leaning defensive in the options pits, with downside protection commanding a clear premium in both majors. Yet perps tell a calmer story: funding sits balanced in BTC and ETH, and the real heat is in SOL, where longs are paying nearly 10% to hold the trade.
Positioning & volatility
| Asset | Funding (blended) | 25Δ skew | Implied / realized vol | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | -1% (HL +1 / OKX -3) | -14.2 | 47.6 / 51.8 | $1.91B |
| ETH | -3% (HL -3 / OKX -4) | -12.1 | 61.1 / 67.4 | $1.08B |
| SOL | +10% (HL +9 / OKX +11) | n/a | n/a / 78.2 | $0.33B |
Funding annualized; negative means shorts pay longs. 25Δ risk reversal in vol points; negative means downside hedged. Snapshots, not positions.
Spot perps show no crowd lean in the majors. BTC funding blends slightly negative and ETH a bit more so, but both carry the balanced tag, so neither side is meaningfully paying. The options market disagrees with that calm. BTC's 25-delta skew sits at -14.2 and ETH's at -12.1, both deep into put-favored territory, meaning traders are bidding crash insurance even as funding stays neutral. Implied vol runs under realized in both names, 47.6 against 51.8 in BTC and 61.1 against 67.4 in ETH, so options are cheap relative to how much price has actually moved. SOL is the outlier on positioning: funding at +9.9% says longs are crowded and paying for it.
What the prediction markets believe
Kalshi pins ETH above $1,500 at 100% and above $2,100 at 1%, both within half a point of options-implied fair value, so there is no edge between the prediction-market read and the curve here.
Bottom line
Watch whether the put bid in BTC and ETH spreads into funding or fades on the open. SOL is the one name where the crowd is genuinely leaning, with longs paying double-digit funding, so any flush there clears first. Cheap implied vol versus realized in the majors means hedges are not expensive if the calm breaks.